Some betting lines from Dan @ CageWager for three of the big fights taking place at UFC 143 tomorrow

Renan Barao Vs. Scott Jorgensen

Renan Barao is just about as hot a prospect as there is right now in Mixed Martial Arts. After dropping a split decision in his MMA debut, he has gone undefeated in 28 fights. Needless to say, the bookies aren't giving anything away on Mr Barao and this is reflected in the skinny odds available about him winning on Saturday night- best odds of 10/23 with Ladbrokes.

After seeing him dismantle Brad Pickett at UFC 138, I assumed I would be tipping him to win his next bout, but at the odds I feel Scotty Jorgensen is a better value proposition. To be sure, I think Barao is a worthy favourite and the most likely winner of this fight, but remember, this blog isn't about picking winners, its about identifying good betting value.

Take a look at the American's record over the last 2 years. He has lost only to current UFC champion, Dominick Cruz and has solid wins over the likes of Brad Pickett, Antonio Banuelos and Jeff Curran. He is a grinding wrestler with an iron chin and a wily veteran's attitude.

At odds of 13/5 I'm willing to take the underdog to upset the rising star and grind out a hard fought decision win. 

Fight Pick: Scott Jorgensen to win on points (13/5 with Paddy Power) 


Josh Koscheck Vs. Mike Pierce

Josh Koscheck's record speaks for itself. He has fought a who's who of welterweight Mixed Martial Arts throughout his career, and has found great success based on his NCAA national champion level wrestling. Mike Pierce is also a solid wrestler with NCAA Division 1 credentials, but Kos is on a different level.

What will really set them apart in this fight in my opinion is his knockout power. He has seen what happened to his AKA training partner Jon Fitch against Johny Hendricks, and will be cautious not to leave his chin sticking out early on.

Koscheck always fights with the confidence of a guy who knows you can't take him down, knows he has a good chin and knows he has knockout power.

Against the upper echelons of the division he has been found out, but I feel against Mike Pierce Koscheck will show why he deserves to be at the top end of this division, even if he never wins the title. Look for the AKA standout to hand Pierce his first KO loss. 

Fight Pick: Josh Koscheck to win by KO (11/4 with Paddy Power) 



Roy Nelson Vs. Fabricio Werdum

I'm surprised that Fabricio Werdum is a favourite over Big Country. My guess is the he is underpriced due to the fact that he achieved MMA immortality be becoming the first man to beat Fedor Emelianenko in 2010.

Apart from this great accomplishment, he hasn't really done much since he was KO'd by current heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos in 2008. Roy Nelson on the other hand has been fighting top level competition in the UFC, losing only hard fought decisions to dos Santos and Frank Mir along the way.

Werdum will look to use His ADCC world champion level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu to his advantage, but Nelson is a well documented submission expert who won't be easy to submit even if Werdum can take him down, which has proven very difficult for other fighters in the past.

My guess is that Big Country will use his takedown defence to keep this one on the feet, and of the two fighters he has the greater knockout power- just ask Stefan Struve and Brendan Schaub. At 5/1, a Roy Nelson KO might be the best value on the whole card.

Fight Pick: Roy Nelson to win by Knockout (5/1 with Paddy Power)

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